2022 Election
The 2022 HOM election is currently underway at BBTF! Discussion thread here. The top candidates debuting in this class and the top returning candidates from last year's vote are highlighted below.
BBTF welcomes new voters for the Hall of Merit (and Most Meritorious Player) elections but be sure to follow the guidelines set out for these elections. *
2022 Newly Eligible Players
Alex Rodríguez is the headliner of the 2022 Hall of Merit class - he is guaranteed to be elected in his first time on the ballot, as he is one of the greatest on-field performers of all time.
David Ortiz is the other newcomer who has a good chance of election, though possibly not in his debut year on the ballot. David Wright has a chance at election someday; the strength of his showing on his debut ballot may be telling as to how good those chances are.
The other debut candidates are long shots for election, at best. Mark Teixeira and Jake Peavy had great careers and may garner votes, but have many similar or better players already contending for their ballot spots. Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon are two of the most successful closers of the modern closer era, but relievers always have an uphill climb to the HOM.
2022 Top Backloggers
Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa, Lance Berkman, and Bobby Bonds are four of the top backloggers from the 2021 election, which is not a coincidence. Corner outfielders that have similar career values but accumulated in different ways or career shapes cause vote-splitting among the electorate, as some voters prefer the peak of Sammy Sosa, some prefer the well-roundedness of Abreu, some prefer the CF play of Berkman, some the baserunning and defense of Bonds, so that as a group, these players are consistently on the borderline of election but have a tough time gaining entry. Brian Giles, Bob Johnson, Heavy Johnson, and Hurley McNair fall into this cluster of players as well.
Andy Pettitte and Vic Willis are the top pitchers on the backlog. Pettitte has a chance at election this year as no new pitchers will supplant him for tops at the position. Willis faces some headwinds for election.
Buddy Bell and Sal Bando remain at the top of the backlog as they have generally done for the past 30 elections. A portion of the electorate believes WAR gives too much credit to third base from the 70s, and so they continue to face this hurdle to election.
Wally Schang and Ben Taylor have been eligible for 80+ years but have not yet gained entry. Sometimes players do break through to election after such long paths, but it remains unlikely for them this year. Schang is somewhat rare in that different portions of the electorate have rather vastly different perceptions of his merit, and for Taylor, updated MLEs are not as favorable as previous estimates.
2022 is an elect-four year. Rodríguez will certainly be one of the selections. My guess is that Abreu will have his ticket punched as well in his third year of eligibility. Sammy Sosa was the #3 backlogger last year, and got leapfrogged at the election by Jeff Kent. Andy Pettitte will leapfrog Sosa this year for enshrinement, leaving what will be an extremely tight race for the final ballot election spot. Sosa and Ortiz have similar headwinds, but Ortiz is remembered more fondly. However, Sosa probably had the better career. How will it play out? Could Bell or Berkman sneak into that final spot? There's a small chance, but if I had to put my money on anyone it would be Ortiz. Really, I think you could flip a coin between Ortiz and Sosa.
I accurately predicted the 2021 class, but 2022 is a tougher call and I wouldn't be too confident in these predictions.
* There are several steps to take if you would like to participate in voting. The preliminary step is to post your ballot in the 2022 ballot discussion thread on BBTF. As mentioned in the guidelines, this is more than a mere formality. Voters are expected to display thoughtfulness and logical/internal consistency on their ballots, and first time voters are required to post a preliminary ballot in the discussion which they may be asked to defend (seasoned voters are asked to defend as well, sometimes!). Ballots that are inconsistent or that do not follow the voting guidelines won't be counted.
In short, the HOM asks for voters who take the project seriously and put more than passing thought into the ballot. In particular, it requires being able to appropriately rank or appraise historical players fairly (this is usually the hard part), so unless you are a walking baseball encyclopedia, research is going to be a necessary part of the process. If you're passionate about baseball past and present, then hopefully that sounds like more fun to you than it does work, and the HOM looks forward to your contributions and perspective. Start here: